Tobias Broer, new member of the Institut Universitaire de France
The Institut Universitaire de France (IUF) has announced the list of members appointed as of October 1, 2024, for a five-year term.
Tobias Broer, professor at the Paris School of Economics and the Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, has been appointed Senior Member for the outstanding quality of his project "Anticipations in macroeconomic analysis - Towards a new paradigm":
Expectations about the future are a key determinant of economic decisions. The macroeconomic models used today for policy analysis in central banks and elsewhere assume that expectations are rational, based on all available information, and therefore identical from one individual to another. This contrasts with the empirical evidence that expectations are heterogeneous, imperfectly informed and only partially rational.
This project proposes to replace the expectation-forming mechanism of standard macroeconomic analysis, which is counterfactual. In its place will be an alternative that takes account, in line with the data, of heterogeneous information and limited rationality. This is particularly timely after the post-Covid inflation surge threatened to unhinge inflation expectations.